Israel Centeno

Few criminal organizations have expanded as aggressively across Latin America as the Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang that has evolved into a transnational network of extortion, drug trafficking, and human smuggling. Yet, what sets this group apart from other cartels is its reported ties to Nicolás Maduro’s regime. The gang is not merely tolerated by the Venezuelan government—it has been cultivated as a tool of repression and geopolitical leverage.

Now, as the U.S. considers ending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelans, the stakes are high. Stripping lawful TPS holders of their status would place thousands at risk of being deported to a country where both the Tren de Aragua and the Maduro regime operate with impunity. The consequences would be catastrophic—not just for those deported, but for U.S. national security interests.

A Criminal Syndicate with Political Backing

The Tren de Aragua didn’t emerge in a vacuum. It was born inside Tocorón prison, where gang leaders built an empire with the tacit approval of the Venezuelan state. Over time, the group became an enforcer of the regime, helping to suppress opposition protests in 2017 and 2018. According to former Venezuelan military officers and intelligence operatives, Maduro’s government has used the gang to infiltrate migrant communities and exert influence beyond Venezuela’s borders.

Former Venezuelan Army Lieutenant Colonel José Gustavo Arocha told Fox News that “the real leader of the Tren de Aragua is in Caracas. It is Maduro’s regime. They created the Tren and use it as a tool of blackmail.” A Venezuelan informant, who infiltrated the gang and later cooperated with Colombian authorities, provided further evidence. In sworn testimony, he described a 2016 meeting between senior Venezuelan military officials and Tren leader Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero, alias Niño Guerrero, inside Tocorón prison. The deal? The gang would assist the government in exchange for weapons and immunity.

Since then, the Tren de Aragua has expanded across Latin America, with cells operating in Colombia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and, increasingly, the United States. Its business model is brutally efficient—coercing migrants, trafficking drugs, and selling protection. While the group remains less visible in the U.S., law enforcement agencies have tracked its activities in cities like Miami and New York.

A Dangerous Precedent: The Mariel Comparison

The current debate over TPS for Venezuelans echoes a historical episode with striking similarities: the Mariel boatlift of 1980. When Fidel Castro sought to rid Cuba of political dissidents, he used the opportunity to send criminals and mental health patients to the U.S. The move was designed to destabilize the exile community and create a crisis for the Carter administration.

This policy shift contributed to a wave of Cuban organized crime in cities like Miami, which later inspired the Scarface legend. But it also created a false narrative that all Cuban refugees were criminals—when, in reality, the vast majority were hardworking people who rebuilt their lives in America.

A similar dynamic is at play today. The Tren de Aragua’s expansion into the U.S. is not the result of TPS holders engaging in criminal activity; it is the direct consequence of Maduro’s regime allowing hardened criminals to escape Venezuela’s prisons and infiltrate migrant flows. The overwhelming majority of TPS holders are law-abiding Venezuelans who have built careers, paid taxes, and contributed to the U.S. economy. Equating them with criminals would be both factually incorrect and strategically shortsighted.

The Risk of Deporting Venezuelans into Chaos

Ending TPS would leave thousands of Venezuelans in legal limbo, making them vulnerable to deportation. But to where? Returning them to Venezuela would be tantamount to delivering them into the hands of either Maduro’s intelligence agencies or the Tren de Aragua’s criminal networks. For many, deportation would not mean starting over—it would mean a death sentence.

The argument here is not for open borders. The U.S. has the right and responsibility to enforce immigration laws and combat transnational crime. But policy should be based on rational security concerns, not fear-mongering or false equivalencies. Removing TPS from Venezuelans who have followed the law would be counterproductive, not just for humanitarian reasons but for U.S. national security.

Allowing Maduro’s regime to benefit from an influx of deportees—many of whom are political exiles—would strengthen the very forces the U.S. seeks to counter. Meanwhile, the Tren de Aragua would find new victims to exploit among those forcibly returned.

A Strategic Approach to Immigration and Security

Instead of gutting TPS, the U.S. should take a two-pronged approach:

1. Increase intelligence operations against the Tren de Aragua – The gang’s growing presence in Latin America and the U.S. warrants closer scrutiny. Law enforcement agencies should intensify efforts to dismantle its networks, particularly its extortion and trafficking operations targeting Venezuelan migrants.

2. Maintain protections for Venezuelan TPS holders – Venezuelans who have built legitimate lives in the U.S. should not be collateral damage in a crackdown on organized crime. If anything, they should be seen as allies in the effort to counter Chavismo’s criminal enterprises.

TPS is not just an immigration policy; it is a firewall against the influence of Maduro’s regime and its criminal enforcers. Abandoning it now would be a gift to Caracas and a disaster for those forced to return. The U.S. has an opportunity to show strength—not by punishing lawful migrants, but by ensuring that its policies do not play into the hands of authoritarian regimes and their criminal proxies.